There are a few names for it, all differ slightly in role: trend spotter, cool hunter, insight analyst, and some describe it as being a "lifestyle detective".
Before I go on, a little about me. I work as a part time junior trend researcher for a design bureau, I'm near graduating from a specialist degree called (wait for it…) Trend Prediction & Forecasting, I am part of an international online spotters network (I'll explain that in a bit) and I also do some consumer research freelance for a number of people. I say all this because my explanation of trend forecasting isn't just something I've paraphrased off a couple of sites and a wikipedia entry off the internet- it is a combination of my own academic, professional and personal experience of it. And I absolutely love being a trend forecaster.
Forecasting is not a new thing. It has been happening for as long as business has been business. Everyone does it all the time intuitively- the first time I really thought about trends was when I was working as an assistant to a stylist and trawling through Oxford St in London sourcing stuff for a shoot, and from being in every single womens fashion store from Tottenham Court Road end to Marble Arch, I had compiled a mental list of all the things I had seen. In every store that season there were ditsy floral denim shorts, neon pink racer back tops and . This is when I realised that there was a system to this- and that somebody somewhere made a consecutive decision in every store that was unanimous.
Using fashion examples is an easy way to describe trend forecasting, but only because fashion information is so accessible. Forecasting happens in finance, technology, automotive industries. However, in the last 20 years or so, instead of just having an in house, glorified 'analyst', the rise of sole forecasting agencies have helped this skill come to light.
If we describe a trend as something that gathers popular momentum, as a pattern or 'thing' i.e. rise of smartphones, we can also understand that there are varying scales of it. For example Flappy Birds- although I despise the game, it gathered popularity so fast that the maker removed it and the iPhone's that still had it were selling for obscene prices on eBay. Ok big trend, but short timescale. Smartphones- big effect, long timescale: it completely changed the purpose of a mobile phone. We've already forgotten about Flappy Birds.
There are 3 ways of identifying a certain type of trend then: micro, meso, macro. Small, medium and large, although in fashion they also use the term transitional- this just means medium because the trend transitions through several seasons. But all these terms identify the scale of influence that they have on society.
But what a lot of people forget is that a trend can also be an emotional or spiritual one. It doesn't have to be about the new aesthetics of architecture, or new technologies, but can actually be in fact a large scale mindset of mass society. Now those are the trends that fascinate me most. And these are the trends that the major forecasting agencies, those who really contribute to many industries (too many to list) work, develop, present and are interested in. We can call these consumer lifestyle trends.
Now although these type of trends are how people feel, we can identify them through behaviours and habits, and also sometimes through small movements that can add up to a bigger picture. To do this effectively however, it is key to analyse across many industries- this is called cross industry analysts. Some of the best forecasters aren't specialised to a certain area- this is because as a forecaster, you need to look at everything, all the time.
Let me give you an example- in the food industry, have you noticed the rise of healthy snacks? Things like kale crisps, Naked bars and Graze boxes? And you can't say you haven't noticed the large popularity of places like Pret a Manger?
In fashion, the coverage and outrage of the factory collapse in Bangladesh, the pricing of Primark increasing, and the rise of swap shops?
Or have you seen the movement of people making furniture out of palettes and homes from old industrial shipping crates?
In automotive, electric cars- need I say more?
We can already see a pattern forming. People are looking towards healthy food after a generation of fast food hypes. More information on the type of things that contribute to cancer, and of course the ethical aspect- Graze is built on the foundation that good snacks aren't hard to find- and made by local people.
Primark, swap shops and the factory collapse are examples that we are beginning to care where not only our food (like Graze) if from, but our clothes too- and that fast fashion is not a long term solution, that we need to think about the reuse of things too.
Housing problems, rates of inflation and the downturn of the economy have pushed people to think of more creative ways of recycling already existing things into homes and furniture. Reuse again.
Now these are just a few off the cuff examples- and that was easy to analyse right? But of course we can hone these down further and actually, a trend forecaster would say to you that they cross over, and cover a few macro trends. It's easy understanding the root of the problem- its much harder putting them into a cohesive format, a story, a concept in order to understand where it will go. That is the defining skill of a trend forecaster, and something I shall cover in another post.
S x
